Tsunami lessons for Tohoku from Tamil Nadu

On Dec. 26, 2004, a massive tsunami blasted across the Indian Ocean, cutting a swath of destruction through communities in Indonesia, Thailand, Sri Lanka and India that claimed a staggering 230,000 lives.

 Tsunami lessons for Tohoku from Tamil NaduWork stations: Fishing boats, many new after the 2004 Asian tsunami, at Mahabalipuram.

As Japan approaches the first anniversary of the great East Japan Earthquake and tsunami of March 11, 2011, are there any lessons to be learned from the 2004 catastrophe?

Complaints in Japan about the slow progress of reconstruction and arguments over improving disaster resilience are familiar battles in other tsunami-devastated communities. such places have also confronted grandiose plans and good intentions that are not always in sync with local needs and desires.

Reports from the field and personal observations suggest that in some cases the NGO response to the March 11 disasters has not been as effective as it might have been. That appears to be because of inadequate coordination, turf battles, misplaced priorities and insufficient local input — problems that were also evident in Tamil Nadu following the 2004 tsunami.

Tsunami bonus

I had a chance to visit BEDROC (Building and Enabling Disaster Resilience of Coastal Communities), an Indian civil society organization with 22 staff working on long-term post-tsunami responses in Tamil Nadu. It continues the project-based interventions carried out by the NGO Co-ordination and Resource Center (NCRC), which was established after the tsunami and is based in Nagapattinam, a coastal village that suffered widespread tsunami damage and 6,000 deaths.

BEDROC focuses on bolstering the disaster-resilience of vulnerable coastal communities by building up local capacities for risk-reduction and disaster response. It receives some funding from Japan-based Asia Community Trust and conducts various projects ranging from livelihood-intervention initiatives to water-management programs that emphasize small-scale, village-based interventions rather than centralized, large-scale public-works undertakings.

Annie George, CEO of BEDROC, explained that the 187 km of Tamil Nadu’s coastline affected by the tsunami had long been neglected by government authorities, and there were few schools, hospitals or roads. Prior to the tsunami, the region lacked almost everything and government offices were understaffed because it was an undesirable posting. After the tsunami, the government transferred high-level officials from the Indian Administrative Service to organize the disaster response and reconstruction efforts — and also provided considerable funding.

She lauded the openness of these central government coordinators who met with NGOs frequently to share information and cooperate. They helped facilitate the establishment of the NGO Co-ordination Center on Jan. 1, 2005 — just a week after the tsunami hit. Eventually, more than 500 domestic and international NGOs conducted projects in the region.

In Tamil Nadu the government quickly issued a directive that established the legal basis for cooperation with NGOs — a partnership that involved the government providing land and infrastructure and the NGOs building housing for displaced survivors.

 Tsunami lessons for Tohoku from Tamil NaduMoving force: Annie George, the CEO of BEDROC (Building and Enabling Disaster Resilience of Coastal Communities).

Under the plan, displaced households would receive the title deeds to a plot of land in a safer place provided they signed away their rights to the land where they lived when the tsunami hit. Virtually everyone signed. They then received new land and new housing — but very few vacated the land they had signed away.

In many cases they rebuilt on this land. They did so because those most affected by the tsunami were fishermen who needed to be close to the coast. They rationalized that they needed places to store nets and other fishing equipment on the beaches where they kept their boats, so it made sense to rebuild damaged homes there. meanwhile, the new homes gave them a sense of security for their families.

As a result, some fishermen emerged from the tsunami with two houses and plots of land — and also received new boats. so the disaster left many far better off than before.

Why didn’t the government crack down? George explained that the local government was unable to enforce the ban on beachfront rebuilding because it went against popular sentiments and, “With elections hanging over their heads, voters had power over the authorities.”

Intervention and tunnel vision

George believes too many NGOs suffer from tunnel vision and are motivated to engage in projects that they can take credit for and use for self-promotion whether or not such projects represent the most effective use of resources.

There is also considerable overlap, turf fighting and duplication of efforts by NGOs that don’t prioritize local needs and interests.

In George’s view, cooperation is not a strong point of NGOs, and in too many cases it is institutional imperatives and the need to justify outlays and raise more funds that drives their disaster-relief efforts. They also squander considerable money on inappropriate and unsustainable projects because they act individually in an ad hoc manner, and don’t coordinate programs connected with a broader plan.

Initially, it’s crucial to get people onto their feet by giving them cash for work related to recovery efforts such as clearing debris. This ensures that people have money to spend and can choose how to spend it. but BEDROC asserts that it is crucial from the outset to ensure that immediate livelihood-recovery efforts feed into a second stage of livelihood sustainability and security.

George argues that interventions are most effective when they are planned from a long-term perspective and focus on strengthening traditional livelihoods. However, NGOs frequently favor nurturing alternative livelihoods, but these are often unsustainable and depend on continuing support and guidance that is not always forthcoming. In addition, many organizations involved with disaster relief do not stick around and implement “off the shelf” programs that are not suited to local needs and capacities.

George cited the case of a village that was offered funding for various projects formulated by NGOs, but the village head negotiated with the donors to pool the funds and use the money to drill six wells to serve the community.

Previously, the village had lacked water for agriculture, so many laborers had to commute elsewhere and the children had to drop out of school to help support their families. but because the village now had a plentiful water supply, it could refocus on agricultural production and create local jobs and keep the kids in school. According to George, that was one rare case of donors listening to what local people think will work best for them.

good intentions

There have been accusations that discrimination marred disaster recovery efforts and that lower-caste groups and women were systematically neglected.

George emphatically rejected these assessments, saying “It’s absolute nonsense. there were no deliberate exclusions.” She pointed out that with so many international aid organizations and workers on the ground — and given their commitment to fighting discrimination and promoting women’s rights — it would have been impossible to exclude lower-caste groups and women from disaster-relief efforts.

Initially, relief and rehabilitation efforts focused on the fishing villages closest to the ocean that had been most devastated, then moved progressively inland. so parachute journalists and short-stay scholars might have got the wrong impression, George said.

“There was a geospatial element rather than caste discrimination that prioritized the most vulnerable communities,” she explained, “but communities of dalits (formerly “untouchables”) living behind the fishing villages also benefited.”

So, although the dalit villages are marginalized from an overall development perspective, George contends they were not neglected in terms of disaster relief and recovery. there were riots, but, she said, those broke out in fishing communities, and did not involve dalit people, or result from discriminatory allocation of recovery support.

Tamil Nadu at a glance

Located in the southeast of India along the Bay of Bengal and Indian Ocean, Tamil Nadu is the 11th largest of the republic’s 28 states and, with a population of 72 million out of the nation’s roughly 1.2 billion population, it is the seventh most populous.

Tamil Nadu has the fourth-largest state economy in India and is the most urbanized, at 44 percent of the population. its capital, Chennai (formerly Madras), is India’s fourth-largest city, with a population of some 9 million in the metropolitan area.

Although the Berlin-based, nonpartisan civil group Transparency International rates it the second most corrupt state in India, Tamil Nadu consistently ranks high in the top 10 states for overall wellbeing as judged by the United Nations Human Development Index, which measures life expectancy, literacy (80 percent), education and standards of living. It is also home to eight UNESCO World Heritage Sites.

Tamil Nadu has a semiarid tropical climate and can be scorching in the January to May dry season, which explains the attraction of the elevated and verdant Western Ghats on the border of Kerala state. its sole monsoon season is between October and December.

The official language is Tamil, a classical Dravidian language, and 88 percent of the population is Hindu; experts believe that the ancient Indus Valley civilization, the cradle of India, was Dravidian. although there is no longer agitation for separatism, Dravidian-identity politics dominate the region, drawing on grievances among many Tamils toward New Delhi and the nation’s Hindi-speaking majority.

In George’s view, the NGOs’ good intentions about promoting social change did more harm than good — while nonetheless highlighting the need to distinguish between disaster relief and rehabilitation projects and efforts to promote development and social engineering.

In Tamil Nadu, many NGOs sought to rectify caste- and gender-discrimination while helping in reconstruction efforts.

These interventions in some cases had sorry consequences for the intended beneficiaries because they challenged existing norms in patriarchal villages organized on caste lines. then, once the NGOs departed, the intended beneficiaries faced resentment and could no longer rely on the traditional safety net and customary support mechanisms. hence the NGOs undermined the old system, and in doing so eroded trust within communities and polarized people.

For example, NGOs promoted the rights of crew members on the fishing boats, targeting the traditional system of catch-allocation that disproportionately rewards the ship owner by giving him shares for his work, the boat, the engine and the nets — on the assumption that he maintains everything.

However, in urging fishermen to demand an equal share, NGOs upset that traditional distribution system. Indeed, as George stressed, the issue divided communities and undermined the reciprocal patron-client relations that are crucial to life in villages that live on the edge of subsistence.

George asserts the NGOs were naive and shortsighted, and that they overestimated their ability to effect change — and how entrenched existing patterns are. The outcome was that they damaged communities through well-intentioned efforts that left their intended beneficiaries even more vulnerable.

George believes it would be better for NGOs to stick to disaster rehabilitation rather than hastily try to promote social reforms. “They misused the opportunity to intervene (for reconstruction) to deal with longstanding development issues,” she said, while lamenting their hasty departures.

Resilience

Although there were no specific emergency plans in place for vulnerable communities in Tamil Nadu in 2004, local people were familiar with cyclones and flooding, so already knew about local safe, elevated spots that evolved into refugee zones.

 Tsunami lessons for Tohoku from Tamil Nadu

George believes this local knowledge is the foundation for improving a locality’s disaster-limitation capacity through improved information dissemination. hence the sudden “tsunami-bonus” introduction of televisions to most households in the area may not be an unalloyed benefit, but it does help spread information that can improve disaster responses.

In George’s view, the software of knowledge is more important than the hardware of sea-wall defenses, and she opposes such construction because it is expensive, creates a false sense of security and is often ineffective.

Sea walls, she said, are an example of amplifying natural disaster through human error, while poor development policies compound the negative consequences. “Officials then try to hide their mistakes by blaming everything on the natural disaster,” she said.

BEDROC found that the quickest and most effective disaster response following the tsunami came from local communities. Consequently, the organization advocates decentralized approaches to building disaster resilience as a way of empowering communities while cutting both costs and corruption and also fine-tuning programs to meet local needs. Promoting transparency and accountability, however, runs afoul of the Public Works Department, where contract fiddling is a refined and resilient art.

Jeff Kingston is Director of Asian Studies, Temple University Japan.

Instructive reports offer post-tsunami insights

I would like to draw attention to two fine studies about the post-2004 tsunami experience that are very relevant to the ongoing assessment of the March 11 response, reconstruction efforts and the desire to nurture more disaster-resilience.

One, published in 2009, is a report titled “Building Local Capacities for Disaster Response and Risk Reduction: an Oxfam-Bedroc Study” (www.bedroc.in).

This joint study focused on two communities in Tamil Nadu and their contrasting experiences with disaster and recovery. one of its key findings is that the first responders to disaster are the most effective and are mostly people from the affected community. hence, improving disaster-resilience hinges on building local capacity.

The report concludes that, “Interventions for economic restoration were seen to be most successful wherever they have been aligned with the traditional livelihoods.”

It also cautions against poorly thought out and inadequately supported interventions that seek to promote social engineering.

The second fine study I would like to draw attention to is titled “The Asian Tsunami: Aid and Reconstruction After a Disaster” (Edward Elgar Publishing and the Asian Development Bank Institute; 2010).

The case studies here by Sisira Jayasuriya and Peter McCawley cover Indonesia, Sri Lanka and Thailand and provide a broader look at the largest natural disaster in recent history — one that claimed the lives of 230,000 people and devastated countless Indian Ocean coastal communities.

The sheer scale of that event spurred a massive humanitarian response totaling some $17 billion, and here the authors assess whether the aid was effective and what the lessons to be learned are about improving disaster-resilience.

The key lesson is the need to “go local” to improve grassroots-level disaster-resilience, since interventions work more effectively by listening to communities and approaching disaster-preparedness and recovery from their perspective.

The authors also point to the lack of effective coordination among a multiplicity of international and local organizations that often have competing or overlapping agendas. However, they offer no clear means of achieving effective coordination.

The report states, “Many individual agencies paid lip service to the need for coordination, but were never keen to be coordinated.”

Competition among agencies, and self-promotion, often come at the expense of the best interests of the aid recipients. The authors stress the need to manage unrealistic expectations, to improve communication and to promote greater transparency and accountability without marginalizing local actors.

They conclude that the aid had a positive impact, but it could have achieved better outcomes with better planning. hence, while encouraging governments to improve disaster-preparedness through enhanced local participation, the report also admonishes international donors to carefully think through their objectives and how to achieve them — and to coordinate more effectively with local counterparts.

Tsunami lessons for Tohoku from Tamil Nadu

Swiss Re Report Examines Insurance Role in Earthquake Disasters

 Swiss Re Report Examines Insurance Role in Earthquake Disasters

Swiss Re’s new report – “Lessons from recent major earthquakes,” focuses on the most recent series of devastating quakes, which have caused extensive loss of life and injuries, along with widespread property damage, over the past two years. the report characterizes the cumulative catastrophic impact of earthquakes on society as “overwhelming.”

They are also very costly. Swiss Re notes that “seismic events caused economic losses of over $276 billion in 2010 – 2011. however, the report also points out that “highly earthquake-prone countries remain underinsured.”

Lucia Bevere, Senior Catastrophe Data Analyst at Swiss Re Economic Research & Consulting and co-author of the publication, stated: “the insurance industry is playing a key role in post-disaster financing of the countries affected. While insurance cannot replace lost lives and livelihoods, appropriate insurance and other risk transfer mechanisms can greatly accelerate the recovery process.”

However, the insurance industry’s contribution to the reconstruction effort differs dramatically from country to country. as an example Swiss Re notes that the “insurance industry will pay an estimated 80 percent of the overall cost of the February 2011 earthquake in New Zealand, but no more than 17 percent for the disastrous event in Japan in March 2011.” Earthquake insurance penetration, in fact, is highest in New Zealand, but it is very low in Japan, particularly for commercial properties.

In addition the report highlights the fact that “overall, earthquake insurance coverage is still quite low, even in some industrialized countries with high seismic risk. Low insurance penetration attests to a population’s low perception of risk.”

Bevere explained that the “low frequency of earthquake events, compared to other natural catastrophes, tends to shape the perception that earthquake risk is much lower than it actually is, even in places where there have been very deadly and damaging occurrences, like  California.”

If there’s insufficient coverage, “post-disaster reparations come from government funds and ultimately must be borne by taxpayers.”

The most recent earthquakes have enhanced the need for more accurate underwriting. Swiss Re noted that earthquake models are generally quite accurate in predicting the immediate physical damage caused by tremors.

However, Balz Grollimund, Head of Earthquake Perils at Swiss Re and co-author of the study, pointed out that “secondary loss factors, such as liquefaction and particularly business interruption, add to the complexity of claims assessments for major earthquakes. these factors should be considered more comprehensively in earthquake models.”

Swiss Re Report Examines Insurance Role in Earthquake Disasters

In Southeast Portland’s Sunnyside neighborhood, disaster planning has begun

 In Southeast Portlands Sunnyside neighborhood, disaster planning has begun

The Sunnyside neighborhood and the Sunnyside Environmental School are working together to help prepare their neighbors for a major disaster, with events scheduled throughout the winter to focus attention on emergency response.

On Wednesday, Jan. 25, at 7:30 p.m., the Red Cross will give a talk at the school about home preparedness for student families and residents.

Volunteers are also trying to learn about the structural quality of the school, at 3421 S.E. Salmon St. they have worked with Portland Public Schools to determine what kind of seismic retrofits have been completed and what else needs to be done.

They are working to determine the building’s structural vulnerabilities, said Dana Buhl, a PTSA board member at the school.

Also, a “disaster dinner” is scheduled March 10 to help simulate a neighborhood response to a major catastrophe, such as an earthquake.

“We’re using the idea of providing food for a lot of people in an emergency situation as kind of a springboard for doing a community event,” Buhl said.

“It’s kind of a combination of a drill and an awareness-building project,” Buhl said.

The dinner’s sponsors include the Sunnyside PTSA, the neighborhood association, the Sunnyside United Methodist Church at 3520 S.E. Yamhill St., and the swap shop at the church.

The dinner will be held the day before the first anniversary of the earthquake and resulting tsunami that struck Japan, Buhl noted.

–Stephen Beaven

In Southeast Portland’s Sunnyside neighborhood, disaster planning has begun

ShakeOut, don’t freak out, earthquake preparedness in 17 weeks

 ShakeOut, dont freak out, earthquake preparedness in 17 weeks

When I say major earthquake, I’m talking about a 7.0 — something that would cause thousands of deaths and injuries, disruption to utilities, building collapse and ruined transportation. Initially, we would see chaos and destruction — a catastrophe.

So we plan, prepare and train while Mother Nature has given us time. you can, too.

On April 17 at 10:15 a.m., the state of Utah will hold the first statewide earthquake drill, the largest of its kind ever to be held in the state.

It’s called the great Utah ShakeOut.

We’re asking Utahns from all walks of life to stop what they’re doing and drop, cover and hold on for one minute. Then, when the “shaking” stops, review your emergency plan and emergency kits and conduct a home hazard hunt. Prepare your home by securing heavy objects, such as the water heater, furniture and TVs. Don’t have a plan or a kit? in future columns, I’ll explain how to gather and build your personal emergency preparedness supplies and how to prepare your home.

But as your new year’s resolution to be ready for disaster in 2012 gets under way, the first step to completing that resolve is to register for the ShakeOut at ShakeOut.org/Utah. by allowing yourself to be counted, you join 412,000 other Utahns — including local governments, 10 school districts, seven colleges and universities and various private businesses — who are committed to being prepared.

See if your organization is on the list. Let’s make that number grow. Registration allows you to receive further preparedness information about how to prepare. the website provides resources to help you plan your drill and share the ShakeOut with your friends and family.

A major earthquake would be devastating, turning your world upside down, but I don’t want to just scare you. I want to help you get the tools and information you’ll need when the shaking stops and recovery begins.

Joining the ShakeOut is a great first step. Each week, until the end of April, I’ll bring you the best preparedness tips to get you ready. if you can’t wait that long, go to BeReadyUtah.gov. It’s all there.

We’re all in this. if we prepare together, we can survive together.

Utah: Preparedness Now

ShakeOut, don’t freak out, earthquake preparedness in 17 weeks

Happy New Year? – Seeking Alpha

In 2010, the world economy, led by emerging markets, staged a remarkable rebound from the deepest global recession since the 1930s. Growth moderated in 2011, however, and the global economy is again on unstable ground. With economic activity gradually picking up in the United States, the European crisis—which is pushing Europe into a shallow recession, and possibly much worse—has reclaimed the spotlight. Though we expect the world economy to continue to grow in 2012, its pace will slow further and the downside risks will be very high. With little economic space and even less political will for more expansionary policies, policymakers must focus on preventing a catastrophe in Europe.

Losing Momentum

After building an impressive head of steam in 2010, the global economy lost momentum in 2011. Weighed down by the European crisis and the earthquake in Japan, global industrial production growth slowed from 8.3 percent in 2010 to virtually zero in the first half of 2011. Production growth accelerated to 3.2 percent annualized in the most recent three months (August through October), bringing the annualized growth rate for the first ten months of 2011 to 3.2 percent—roughly in line with the pre-crisis average—and finally returning the industrial production level to its ten-year trend.

As the chart shows, however, emerging economies—and principally Asia—have fared far better than advanced countries, where production stagnated in 2011 and has yet to return to pre-crisis levels.

1325150111 62 Happy New Year?   Seeking Alpha

Global trade is slowing as well. after growing by 10.4 percent in 2010, world trade volumes have been flat from January through October 2011—compared to an average pre-crisis growth rate of about 7 percent.

This slowdown has hit stock markets—which have still, three years since the great Recession’s outbreak, not recovered to their pre-crisis level—implying adverse wealth and confidence effects. since the start of the year, major stock indices are down 5 percent in the United States, 10 percent in the UK, and 20 percent in Europe and Japan. Brazilian and Chinese indices, furthermore, are down 20 percent.

As economic growth slowed, inflationary pressures abated. Commodity prices, which contributed to the uptick in inflation this year, have dropped by 20 percent since May after surging by 45 percent in the ten months prior. Consequently, inflation expectations have fallen: based on the yield differential between garden-variety and inflation-protected bonds, markets are predicting 10-year inflation at 1.9 percent in the United States, 2.5 percent in the UK, and lower still in Germany.

Most important, concerns about overheating in emerging markets have eased somewhat. Partly in response to inflation falling from 6 percent (m/m of the previous year) in June through September to 4.2 percent in October, China eased bank reserve requirements for the first time in three years. in Brazil and India, inflation has declined since September, but, at 6.7 and 9.4 percent (both m/m of the previous year), it remains high in both countries. the decline in Brazil prompted its central bank to cut interest rates three times since September.

Reflecting the search for safe havens from the euro crisis, as well as the decline in global growth and inflationary pressures, bond yields in the largest advanced economies remain at or near record lows. U.S., UK, and German ten-year bond yields are all hovering around 2 percent, while Japanese bond yields are even lower, around 1 percent. By contrast, yields in Italy, the third-largest government bond market are at 6.8 percent.

Reasons for Hope

Despite the slowdown, growth in emerging and developing countries remains strong even by historic standards. according to the most recent estimates by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), emerging and developing countries will grow by 6.4 percent in 2011, higher than their precrisis average of 5.8 percent. Employment levels in the BRICS (China, India, Brazil, Russia, and South Africa) are above their precrisis averages. U.S. dollar per capita GDP, moreover, is estimated to grow by about 60 percent on average from 2007 to 2011, suggesting that these economies, which purchase 18 percent of global imports, can continue to account for a large part of world demand growth.

Economic activity is gradually picking up in the United States as well. Consumer spending on services, which accounts for about 45 percent of the U.S. economy, grew by 2.9 percent (q/q, annualized) in the third quarter, the fastest rate since 2006. overall consumption expenditures growth also accelerated to 2.3 percent, but remains slightly below the long-run average.

Crucially, though unemployment remains high and labor force participation is still low, the U.S. job market is finally showing solid signs of improvement. Unemployment dropped from 9 to 8.6 percent in November (partly because of labor force adjustments) and the private sector is on pace to add 1.87 million jobs in 2011, which would be the fourth-best year, in both absolute and percentage terms, since 1999.

1325150111 12 Happy New Year?   Seeking Alpha

Finally, U.S. nonfinancial corporations are in good health. After-tax U.S. corporate profits reached $1.6 trillion, or 10.3 percent of GDP, in the third quarter of 2011, the highest in history by both measures.

Reasons for Worry

The European picture is darkening ominously. since infecting Italy, the eurozone crisis has spread throughout the continent’s banking system and is causing a severe credit crunch. GDP declined in the third quarter in Italy, Greece, Ireland, the Netherlands, and Portugal and stagnated in Spain. as a best case scenario, the eurozone is expected to slip back into recession this quarter or in early 2012.

The eurozone represents 20 percent of world GDP, and if its crisis continues to intensify as it has done steadily over the last two years, the global economy could face another Lehman moment—or worse. the bond markets of Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, and Spain total $4.6 trillion, three times the size of the entire U.S. subprime mortgage market at its peak. the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development estimates that disorderly defaults would lower eurozone GDP growth by 5.8 percent over two years and world growth by 3.4 percent, while some private analysts (pdf) estimate that a breakup would be several times more severe.

Though the Italian ten-year bond yield—currently the best single barometer for the crisis—is down from the 7.2 percent peak it hit last month, it remains around 6.8 percent, well above what most analysts believe is sustainable. European Central Bank (ECB) bond purchases have kept the rate from rising higher, but the ECB has repeatedly warned that its purchases will be temporary and limited. At the same time the ECB has greatly stepped up its liquidity support for banks. Politicians continue to inch toward a solution—their most recent effort includes an agreement to tighten fiscal discipline as a prelude toward a “fiscal union”, whose shape remains entirely unspecified, and a commitment to add about $200 billion to the IMF. but Europe is still far from anything resembling a definitive solution.

Europe is not the only trouble spot, however. after the failure of the congressional “supercommittee” to pass a deficit reduction package, the United States has no clear way to reduce its rapidly rising public debt. Though markets have shrugged it off as a long-term problem, the supercommittee’s failure could have effects soon if the “trigger” cuts to discretionary spending go into effect in 2013. With the opportunity for fast-tracked, filibuster-proof reform now gone and a gridlocked Congress struggling to agree on a widely supported extension of the payroll tax cut and unemployment insurance benefits, it is unclear whether the U.S. political system is capable of providing fiscal policy that responds appropriately to the business cycle, much less act to reduce government debt in the longer term.

Finally, despite its high, albeit slowing, growth, China is plagued by uncertainties too. in part, these are associated with risks coming from the advanced countries, but there are also major domestic concerns. Slowing growth and the delayed effects of tighter monetary policy are deflating property markets, which are already down by 3 to 10 percent in major cities over the last four months. Sharper declines in property prices could produce a string of bankruptcies that disrupt the financial system. With China accounting for a third of global growth over the past five years, a significant slowdown there would clearly endanger the global recovery.

Conclusion

With many advanced countries lacking policy space to respond to an economic downturn, the focus must be on crisis prevention and containment. the stakes now for heading off a worsening of the crisis in Europe could not be higher. No longer able to survive on half-baked solutions, Europe must commit to closer fiscal integration and to more expansionary policies in Germany and other countries that can afford them. meanwhile, a larger rescue fund and ECB support for the periphery when needed must be part of the short-term solution. Because European resources alone may not be able to save the euro, the United States, China, and other major economies should make a determined effort to enlarge the IMF. Without these changes, the fragile global recovery may not last through the coming year.

Uri Dadush is the director of Carnegie’s International Economics Program. Bennett Stancil is a researcher in Carnegie’s International Economics Program.

Happy New Year? – Seeking Alpha

French PM witnesses ‘desolate’ Japan tsunami zone

 French PM witnesses desolate Japan tsunami zoneAFP Saturday, Oct 22, 2011

SHINOMAKI, Japan – French Prime Minister Francois Fillon visited the tsunami-ravaged Japanese port city of Ishinomaki Saturday, saying the disaster had left “wounds which will take a long time to heal”.

Some 4,000 of the city’s 165,000 residents were killed in the record March 11 earthquake-tsunami, of the 20,000 left dead or missing across northeast Japan.

Seven months after the catastrophe the once-thriving fishing port remains a scene of devastation, strewn with thousands of tonnes of debris piled in mounds several metres high. Hundreds of wrecked cars have still not been cleared.

“This is a scene of desolation, there is the immediate shock and then we think things are going to rebuild and return to normal,” said Fillon, who met volunteers including young French people helping with reconstruction work.

“But it will be here for years… this scene of desolation is no less brutal than the images of the tsunami itself.”

Local authorities estimate it will take five years to rebuild Ishinomaki after the damage caused by the 15-metre (50-foot) wall of water triggered by a massive 9.0-magnitude earthquake.

“I came to Japan to talk about the G20 (meeting in France), which is very important for the future of the world economy,” said Fillon, who arrived in Sendai, a major city near Ishinomaki, earlier Saturday by special plane.

“But I thought it was not possible to come to Japan without coming here to the heart of one of the regions most affected by the earthquake.”

“We were all shocked by the images that we have seen on television,” Fillon said, adding it was “important to continue to provide moral, technical and material support when necessary.”

“Japanese industrial production is nearly back at pre-tsunami levels, which shows the dynamism of this economy,” Fillon said. “But there are wounds that will take a very long time to heal, there are thousands of people missing.”

Fillon said he had followed the events in Japan with “an unusual interest” because one of his brothers, a jazz pianist, is married to a Japanese musician.

His brother is to perform with other musicians at a fund-raising concert in Tokyo for victims of the disaster.

Fillon was due to spend the night in Tokyo after meeting French residents at the ambassador’s residence.

On Sunday he will hold talks with Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda before leaving Japan. he met his South Korean counterpart Kim Hwang-Sik on Friday.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g5l3n4I1S6M&hl=en&fs=1&rel=0]

French PM witnesses ‘desolate’ Japan tsunami zone

VoiceNation Reports Importance of Disaster Recovery Plan Two Months after Japan’s 2011 Earthquake and Tsunami

 VoiceNation Reports Importance of Disaster Recovery Plan Two Months after Japan’s 2011 Earthquake and Tsunami

Buford, GA (PRWEB) may 16, 2011

After the tragic earthquake and tsunami hit Japan on March 11th, 2011, companies around the world are affected by the catastrophe. Japan is the third largest economy in the world, according to the 2010 World Economic Outlook Database. Japan plays a vital role in the global market and supply chain, not only in its own country, but in other countries as well. the impact has forced Japan to face an economic slowdown, with outflow reaching the US and European economies. More than two months after the disaster, businesses continue to make strives towards recovery. VoiceNation prompts companies to implement a disaster recovery plan to help keep business afloat.

Japan is home to a number of key business industries, including electronics, automotive, and service. Countries around the world depend on Japan for their employment opportunities that help shape and stabilize their economy. the unfortunate disaster has created a great deal of business loss. the quake and tsunami has resulted in major infrastructure loss, financial loss, physical and human capital loss, largely impacting Japan’s production and distribution segments.

Major companies have had to put a halt on production. According to BCC News, major technology firms including Sony, Canon, Panasonic and Toshiba, are facing disruption to supplies while their local manufacturing plants are down. the automotive industry has been largely hit by the quake and tsunami, disabling car plants and suppliers, resulting in parts shortages. Auto Car Exposed reported that Japan’s biggest automakers, Toyota and Honda, are suffering from the loss of production of hundreds of thousands of vehicles, amounting to billions of dollars. CNN Money reports Toyota Motor took a $ 1.3 billion hit from the cost of the earthquake and tsunami that struck Japan, but the world’s largest automaker said Wednesday (5/10/11) it is moving to resume normal production sooner than previously expected.

The Congressional Research Service gathered the following business disruptions:

~ Delta Airlines, the largest foreign carrier in Japan, is cutting capacity to and through its Tokyo hub by 15% to 20% through may and expects the crisis in Japan to reduce profits in 2011 by $ 250 million to $ 400 million.~ A Hitachi factory north of Tokyo that makes 60% of the world?s supply of airflow sensors was shut down. this caused General Motors to close a plant in Shreveport, LA, for a week and Peugeot-Citroen to cut back production at most of its European plants.~ two Japanese plants accounting for 25% of the world?s supply of silicon wafers for computer chips were closed.~ Sony Corp. temporarily closed seven damaged plants making high definition magnetic tapes, digital video discs, lithium batteries, semiconductor lasers, and optical devices. the company also suspended operations in three other plants because of electricity shortages.

As we see how the tragic tsunami/quake event has had a negative impact on the global economy, we are reminded of the importance of a disaster recovery plan. to help minimize the negative effects of a natural disaster, companies should do advance planning to have an arrangement in place. VoiceNation can help. If your business takes a hard hit, you can have peace of mind your phones will remain open for business. A live answering service will keep your managers, employees, and customers intact. let VoiceNation protect your business so that you can focus on life’s necessities.

VoiceNation, America’s leader in virtual PBX and voicemail was founded in 2002 by CEO Jay Reeder and opened their Next Generation call centers in 2009. the company has grown to serve more than 40,000 customers including FEMA, Blue Cross/Blue Shield, Dell, AIG and the U.S. Coast Guard. They leverage the very latest in proprietary technology solutions in order to deliver quality call answering services at the lowest cost to their customers. to learn more about VoiceNation and their services, please visit http://www.qualityansweringservice.com/about-us.

For more information, contact:Graham C. TaylorMedia Relations1.866.766.5050, ext. 150

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uGIUg1RaKXw&hl=en&fs=1&rel=0]

VoiceNation Reports Importance of Disaster Recovery Plan Two Months after Japan’s 2011 Earthquake and Tsunami

Living with the aftermath of Japan’s tsunami nightmare

STORY HIGHLIGHTS

  • Kyoko Ogawa became depressed after losing her hotel in March tsunami
  • She contemplated suicide after being afraid to talk to anyone about her troubles
  • She says a volunteer psychiatrist at an evacuation center saved her
  • Mental health specialists are worried about the impact of the disaster months later

Otsuchi, Japan (CNN) — Kyoko Ogawa wore the brave face the world associated with Japan’s tsunami survivors.

The March 11 catastrophe washed away all her earthly possessions. She watched as her hotel burned to the ground in a gas explosion triggered by the tsunami; a hotel that had been in her family for generations.

She was determined not to let the disaster break her.

But after the elation of finding her son alive, the reality of losing her livelihood started to erode the calm facade. She was in turmoil. She was afraid to talk to other people about it because she knew everyone was suffering as much as her, if not more.

They were “ganbaru,” she recalls — enduring, holding on, withstanding, and living with the pain. She couldn’t be the only one to lose control.

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“I was in shock because I realized that all that was precious to me was gone,” she says, six months on from that terrible day. “I didn’t know what to do from then on. I became tormented.”

That was the start of a slippery slope down a dark trail of despair.

It’s a familiar story in Otsuchi, northeastern Japan, where the devastating earthquake and tsunami turned much of the town in Iwate Prefecture into rubble. Today, much of that physical debris has been cleared away. But the emotional wreckage of the survivors is proving much more difficult to remove, as the mental scars from that day linger months later.

In Ogawa’s case, depression could have had tragic consequences for her had she not met Suimei Morikawa, a volunteer psychiatrist who listened patiently to her troubles one day at an evacuation center.

Morikawa became the difference between life and death. She says she probably would have ended her life if the doctor hadn’t been there for her.

“I was so moved by her approach to life,” recalls Morikawa. “She may have been suffering and wanting to end her life because she had lost so much, but she also desperately wanted to get over that. I was moved by her willingness to get out of her own situation. I just helped her a little.”

Concerns about suicide and Post Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD) are growing among mental health specialists working in the region. PTSD in particular, a condition which can push people over the edge if not addressed, can show up months after the initial shock.

Suicide is also a major concern in Japan.

The sense of loss and deep grief can overcome you quickly and if you are alone when that happens, you lose all hope for the future.Mariko Ukiyo, psychologist

According to the World Health Organization, Japan has the fifth highest suicide rate in the world. more than 30,000 suicides are reported each year, according to the country’s national police agency, with Iwate Prefecture — one of the regions hit hardest by the tsunami — having one of the biggest problems.

Mariko Ukiyo, a psychologist and volunteer counselor, is part of a therapy group called “Team Japan 300.” She and a number of other team members visit temporary villages in the devastated region hoping to treat symptoms of PTSD and ultimately prevent suicides.

According to Ukiyo, loneliness and despair take hold when the survivors move from their evacuation center to temporary housing.

“It is only then that people see how their life has changed from their pre-disaster life,” she says. “The sense of loss and deep grief can overcome you quickly and if you are alone when that happens, you lose all hope for the future. I think this period is when they need help the most.”

But getting help to the victims is proving to be a challenge in Japan, a country with limited experience in mental health care historically. Ukiyo says the amount of psychological support received by tsunami victims now is a tenth of what the victims of 9/11 in the United States experienced.

According to Ukiyo, the devastating 1995 earthquake in the city of Kobe started to raise awareness about the effects of post-traumatic stress — particularly among the younger generation — but many Japanese continue to find it difficult to talk about sorrow and loss because of the shame of appearing weak.

Ukiyo’s strategy is to gather the residents in temporary housing for a regular get-together in a relaxed atmosphere. this gives her the opportunity to keep an eye on each of the participants, observing anyone that shows signs of severe distress. The hope is that what starts out as small talk will gradually evolve into people talking about themselves and their problems.

But despite her efforts Ukiyo is not optimistic about the region’s future with trauma.

“We are only now starting to hear about sick or depressed people six months after the tsunami,” she says. She believes suicide rates will only increase.

Meanwhile, Kyoko Ogawa vows not to be another victim. She says Dr. Morikawa pulled her back from the brink and she is now making plans for the future. She wants to rebuild her hotel and give back to those who helped her.

While Ogawa is a success story for Morikawa, he worries about those he will never reach in this devastated region.

“Now that I have met these people, I have grown attached to them,” he says.

“It saddens me that there are still so many people suffering here. I can’t stand the thought that there may be people who died because they had no-one to talk to.”

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sU8zyscGWe4&hl=en&fs=1&rel=0]

Living with the aftermath of Japan’s tsunami nightmare

Video: Japan earthquake tsunami footage showing intense force

A new video has emerged on the web showing an extensive view of the sheer power of the recent tsunami in Japan. The video was captured by an onlooker who was stranded on top of a building near the port of Kesennuma.

1301361329 50 Video: Japan earthquake tsunami footage showing intense force

At first, the water seems to trickle over the harbour wall, but as time passes the speed and flow of water just keeps rising to unbelievable levels, taking everything in its path. Cars are tossed and tumbled literally like they are toys in a bath tub. Even an entire shed/factory is picked up and swept downstream, squashing cars against buildings.

Simply mind-blowing footage showing just how vulnerable cars can be. In these circumstances it’s highly recommended not to try and outrun the water before it reaches you, safety personnel recommend trekking to higher ground by foot. but as the footage proves, there’s hardly any time to prepare for such a catastrophe.

Video: Japan earthquake tsunami footage showing intense force

Obama Starts to Address Offshore Hazards and Calls for Clean …

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Obama Starts to Address Offshore Hazards and Calls for Clean Energy Action

I applaud President Obama’s announcement today that he is extending the moratorium on offshore drilling and calling a time out on lease sales off the coast of Alaska. These are forceful steps that will help protect America’s marine life and coastal communities in the immediate aftermath of the Deepwater Horizon catastrophe.President Obama is right to impose the moratorium on deepwater drilling until the independent commission completes its investigation into the BP oil disaster. but the moratorium should cover shallow water drilling as well. last summer, a blowout occurred in Australia at a water depth of just 240 feet. It took 10 weeks to drill a relief well and the oil spread over thousands of square miles.the president is right to cancel planned lease sales in the western Gulf of Mexico and off the coast of Virginia. and he is right to delay planned drilling in the Chukchi and Beaufort seas off the coast of Alaska.but the President should go further. An oil spill in the fragile Arctic waters could be even more devastating than in the Gulf. cold temperatures would make it almost impossible for oil to disperse and broken ice would make it difficult to clean up. there is much we don’t know about drilling in these conditions, and NRDC recommends delaying any drilling in the Arctic for several years while thorough study is done. we can’t afford to gamble the future of this region on the promises of an industry that has so thoroughly failed us thus far.the President is also right to strengthen government oversight of the oil industry and issue new safety regulations. again, though, more needs to be done to address the welter of problems–inadequate regulation, uneven enforcement, close ties between regulators and industry–that led to this disaster in the Gulf.Even as the President begins to address the hazards of offshore drilling, we must also focus on the root cause of the tragedy in the Gulf.we can blame BP for the disaster, and we should. we can blame lack of adequate government oversight for the disaster, and we should. but in the end, we also must place the blame where it originated: America’s addiction to oil.BP was drilling at 5,000 feet because our gluttonous appetite for oil demands it. It is the same force that powers destructive tars sands oil development in Alberta and feeds two wars overseas. until we change this reality, there will be more blowouts, more devoured landscapes, and more soldiers lost on the battlefield.President Obama can lead us in a cleaner future–one where American workers do the job of producing more fuel efficient cars and designing better public transit systems.the President has taken several strong steps recently. on Friday he announced new cleaner vehicle standards for cars and heavy trucks. and at today’s press conference, he urged Congress to pass clean energy and climate legislation, saying: “If nothing else, this disaster should serve as a wake up call that it’s time to move forward on this legislation.”I look forward to the President continuing to press the case for legislation at every opportunity.Americans feel sickened by watching the Gulf of Mexico get destroyed. they want to see the disaster clean up and to create a future where this kind of tradeoff is no longer necessary. President Obama can guide the way.

Obama Starts to Address Offshore Hazards and Calls for Clean …

Obama Starts to Address Offshore Hazards and Calls for Clean …